what if Trump and Biden were in the past?

9:23 p.m., July 2, 2022, amended to 10:01 p.m., July 2, 2022

Clearly, the decisions of the Supreme Court in recent days send shivers down the spine. Abortion, firearms, climate: the proof is well done that the appointments of three ultra-conservative judges by Donald Trump are his greatest political victory. Obviously also, and despite the passage of a recent bipartisan law on a minor tightening of controls for the purchase of firearms, the inability of the Democrats in the Senate to reform the country is patent.

Read also – “Bring me to the Capitol”: when Trump wanted to join his supporters during the attack on Congress

In the House, where the Democrats are still in the majority until November, the commission of inquiry into the assault on the Capitol on January 6 has succeeded in proving that Donald Trump was indeed the trigger for the sedition. But it is not certain, legally and politically, that these results will convince the Department of Justice, under the impetus of the White House, to indict the former president in order to bring him before the courts for incitement to violence against the democratic institutions of the United States.

70% of Americans think the country and its economy are headed in the wrong direction

Looking more closely at the results of the latest wave of polls this week, that of the Harris Institute for the Center for Political Studies at Harvard is probably the most revealing of the deep malaise that American democracy is going through.

-70% of Americans think the country and its economy are going in the wrong direction.

-In less than a year, the percentage of Americans believing that their financial situation has deteriorated has doubled, from 32 to 64%.

– Over the last twelve months, President Biden has lost 23 points in popularity, to 38% today.

– On nine areas of action ranging from foreign policy to domestic policy through the economy, Joe Biden fails to convince the Americans except on one, the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic.

– In the game of the rivalry of confidence among citizens between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, conservatives score five points higher than progressives, even if neither of them passes the bar of 50% positive opinions.

-At the same time, confidence in Congress to legislate in the interests of Americans has fallen in one year by 26 points, from 54% to 28%.

-Of the 17 strongest political figures in the country, only two manage to get a positive rating from those polled: Republican Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis (+6) and African-American Republican Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott (+3), while Joe Biden is at -16, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House at -27, Donald Trump at -12 and Mitch McConnell, Leader of the Opposition in the Senate at -22.

-Among the most popular institutions or organizations in the countrythe army leads with a delta of favorability of 67 points, the police of 43, the FBI of 31, the Supreme Court of 8 and Black Lives Matter of only one point.

-Among the issues of concern to Americans, inflation, employment, firearms and immigration are in the first four ranks, climate change at 10th, the assault on the Capitol from 6-January to 14th, race relations and the right to vote at 17th and 18th, wokism at 22nd, while the last three themes are policing , cybersecurity and national defense.

-In the voting intentions for the midterm elections, the Democratic camp would lose 5 points with voters from residential suburbs, 6 with African-American voters, 2 with women, 4 with independent voters and 2 with young people aged 18 to 34.

-Regarding Joe Biden, 60% have doubts about his physical ability to exercise his function and 64% think he is too old to be president.

-For the 2024 presidential election, 56% of Republican voters want Donald Trump to run and 36% Ron DeSantis if he doesn’t while only 30% of Democrats want Joe Biden to run and 25% his Vice President Kamala Harris in case the president would not want to re-enlist. Should Joe Biden be a candidate for re-election, he would be beaten by Trump by 3 points and Kamala Harris by 6 points.

– But the most interesting thing is that 71% of Americans do not want Biden to run again and 61% do not want Trump to run for the White House again. In which case, a hypothetical duel between Ron DeSantis and Kamala Harris would be narrowly won by the latter by 2 points.

There is a fed up effect around Trump and Biden

This major opinion poll also tells us that Americans are deeply disappointed by the political and judicial decisions of recent days. Counter-intuitively, they do not think that the January 6 Commission of Inquiry is objective, they want Congress to do something other than what they interpret as political settling of accounts. After the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion, which they disapprove of, they nevertheless think that it is not up to Congress to act by adopting a federal law which would apply in all the federated states. In other words, they are much closer to the purely legal decision of the Court according to which it is not abortion which becomes prohibited but that it is up to the federated States to decide on it.

We understand it better after reviewing all these figures which are only a snapshot of opinion, there is a fed up effect around Trump and Biden. Within the Democratic Party, there is a kind of disenchantment which is due in particular to the paralysis of Congress. Without reforms, the president appears as he is, that is to say weak and indecisive.

And even if his foreign policy generates a form of consensus against Russia and China, the Democrats feel that their country is not as respected as it was at the time of Trump’s defeat in November 2020. Since then, according to another study by the Pew Center, the popularity of the United States in the rest of the world has dropped considerably, even if it remains in the Western camp significantly higher than that of Russian and Chinese rivals.

There seems to be little doubt that Congress will swing entirely to the right this time.

There seems to be little doubt that Congress will swing entirely to the right this time. The question is that of the margin of victory of the Republicans. Whether limited or average, it will not radically change the game. Concretely, Joe Biden will find himself in the situation of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama after two years in office. This did not prevent either of them from being re-elected. The problem is that Biden is much older. What was considered secondary to the priority of beating Trump has become a serious handicap.

It will also be necessary after the holidays to take stock of the primaries of these mid-term elections. Republican side to check if the candidates dubbed by Donald Trump are able to win and, on the Democratic side, if the centrists are still audible against the left wing of the electorate. The Harris survey clearly shows that the themes carried by the most progressive within the party are relegated far behind in the ranks of voters’ priorities. Could this be a sign that we must return to the fundamentals of the fight for an economy that benefits the greatest number?

If I see in all these figures, a degagism in the making, that does not mean that it will be self-fulfilling. The mid-term campaign which will really start in September could be, as often, full of surprises. But I can already hear in places of power in Paris and from other capitals putting on a little music on the theme of the possible return of Trumpism in 2024. Nothing would be more inconsistent than to procrastinate on this subject as if it remained another two years. Preparing for the consequences of an Act II of the right-wing populist revolution in the United States is a necessity.

After USA 2008, Oval Office seasons 1 and 2 during the Obama presidency, then Trump Power from 2016 to 2020, this new blog by François Clemenceau aims to analyze all aspects of the Biden presidency: political, economic, diplomatic , which naturally implies the debate and the actions of the Republican opposition.

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