United States: abortion, environment, weapons… less than two years after his defeat, has Donald Trump finally won?

the essential
With the very conservative decisions taken recently by the Supreme Court of the United States, such as the decision to revoke the right to abortion, and the difficult polls for the Democrats before the midterm elections in the fall, can we talk about victory a posteriori for former President Donald Trump?

Marie-Christine Bonzom is a political scientist, journalist and specialist in the United States. She has covered seven US presidential elections and followed the tenure of five presidents from George Bush Sr. to Donald Trump.

Revocation of the right to abortion, weakening of the policy of reducing CO2 emissions… The American Supreme Court has shown in recent weeks that it is indeed the highest court in the country. While three new conservative judges had been appointed by Donald Trump, can we speak of a posteriori victory for the former president?

The appointment of Supreme Court justices is indeed one of the most important powers, along with directing the armed forces, available to American presidents. The stakes are all the greater since the Supreme Court is the highest court in the United States, and these appointments are made for life. They therefore mark the orientation of the Court for several decades, especially when these judges are relatively young, as was the case with the three people appointed by Donald Trump.

We pay little attention to it in France or in Europe, but the Supreme Court represents one of the most important powers in the country, it can deal with all aspects of law and above all the case law it issues has a very important weight.

Marie-Christine Bozom.
Catherine Stearns

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Does this represent a setback for Joe Biden?

The situation obviously does not work in favor of the current American president. This Court dominated by an ultra-conservative majority is an unprecedented crisis for Joe Biden.

But depending on the strategy his side and his government will adopt, it can also represent an opportunity. For many Americans, the measures announced by the Supreme Court in recent weeks could be a source of mobilization during the midterm elections in November. Joe Biden therefore quickly decided to exploit this setback by calling on citizens who disagreed with these decisions to go and vote. In a way, this can represent a gift, a breath of fresh air, provided you succeed in mobilizing.

It is a desperate attempt on his part to extricate himself from the limbo he has fallen into in recent polls. It turns out to be increasingly unpopular.

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Can this situation work in favor of Donald Trump if he decides to run again?

It was obvious, when we followed the mandate of Donald Trump, that the appointment of these three new conservative judges would have an impact far beyond his presidency, and even his life since he is approaching 80 years old and that he It is very likely that they will serve on the Supreme Court for several more decades.

Regarding a possible candidacy for the 2024 election, he has so far simply hinted that he is interested in a third presidential campaign, but nothing has been formalized for the time being.

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If a new Joe Biden-Donald Trump game takes place in 2024, how would that be perceived by Americans?

This would be in the context of a broken two-party system. The two dominant parties, Republican and Democrat, created a system, locked it down and plunged it into deep bankruptcy. If this duel were to emerge, the Americans would have to choose between two aging men whom they do not want. Whether it’s for Biden or Trump, polls have shown for months that citizens want neither…

If he decides to return in 2024, Trump may not be welcomed with open arms. Even if, from a factual point of view, its balance sheet was rather positive in the economic field with a historically low unemployment rate, energy independence, etc. Biden may succeed in mobilizing on cultural issues like abortion or same-sex marriage, but will that be enough? Hard to say.

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